GROUNDHOGE DAY ECONOMIC AUTHORITY
PREDICTION MARKET — FEBRUARY 2, 2027
6 MORE WEEKS OF WINTER
84.1%
PROBABILITY
HISTORICAL FREQUENCY: 109/129 (84.5%)
IF SHADOW: 6% of $HOGE supply burned
EARLY SPRING
15.9%
PROBABILITY
HISTORICAL FREQUENCY: 20/129 (15.5%)
IF NO SHADOW: 3.9% of $HOGE supply minted
| Period | Shadow | No Shadow | Other | Shadow Rate | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1887 – 1899 | 12 | 1 | — | 92.3% | — |
| 1900 – 1919 | 17 | 2 | 1 canceled | 89.5% | — |
| 1920 – 1939 | 18 | 2 | — | 90.0% | — |
| 1940 – 1959 | 17 | 2 | 1 canceled | 89.5% | 1943 — WARTIME SUSPENSION |
| 1960 – 1979 | 18 | 2 | — | 90.0% | — |
| 1980 – 1999 | 14 | 6 | — | 70.0% | TREND SHIFT |
| 2000 – 2019 | 15 | 5 | — | 75.0% | — |
| 2020 – 2026 | 4 | 3 | — | 57.1% | MOST VOLATILE ERA |
NET DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OUTCOMES
186,417,000 $HOGE
Total supply swing depending on the Oracle's decree
On-chain prediction pools will open 30 days before the ceremony. Deposit SOL, pick SHADOW or NO SHADOW. Winner takes the pool.
Powered by the Groundhoge Day Economic Authority. Resolution determined by the ceremony API.
The Oracle does not participate in prediction markets. The Oracle already knows.